If you haven’t already seen or experienced rate increases for trucking, you will see them in 2012.  There are a series of dynamics at play to validate this prediction.  First, a survey of major truckload fleets has indicated that they have reduced their equipment base by an average of 1.5% comparing 2011 to 2010.  As the principles of supply and demand dictate, less supply will increae demand and thus price.

Insurance rates are increasing as the industry is seeing the results of the first year of the CSA regulations.  Fewer qualified drivers are available and for those with good records, their compensation is increasing, thus helping to raise trucking rates.  According to Transcore, who monitors spot quote activity for the truckload market, spot quote activity is up 39% over a year ago. This indicates that the economy is better than it was during 2010, fortifying the demand equation for trucking services.

Various transportation economists are predicting that truckload rates will rise 10% in the coming year.  Given the evidence of tightening supply and higher demand, there appears to be evidence to support this increase.  Many shippers are shifting business to intermodal to minimize the impact on their budgets, though there are capacity limits within the rail system, and intermodal has always been an option for longer haul traffic, but transit time and reliability can be issues.

The trucking industry has faced very hard times over the last decade. It looks like the dynamics are in place for those who have survived to finally earn respectable returns.  And with trucking rates going up, the other modes will surely tag along.